The Arizona Fall League: A Crucial Opportunity for Players
For many players, the Arizona Fall League (AFL) serves as a make-or-break opportunity that resembles a last-chance saloon. This league isn't just a simple exhibition; it's a platform where some of the most promising prospects in baseball have the chance to showcase their skills right before the offseason arrives.
This unique environment offers valuable experience for young talents and is also critical for Minor Leaguers on the verge of Rule 5 Draft eligibility. During this time, they must demonstrate their worthiness for protection from being selected by rival teams or prove they deserve a spot in the Major Leagues for the upcoming year.
Generally speaking, a player becomes Rule 5 eligible if they either signed at the age of 18 or younger and have accumulated five or more years of professional experience, or they signed at the age of 19 or older with a minimum of four years in the system as of June 5 that particular year. This specific guideline is a crucial point to remember as we analyze potential candidates in this year's AFL.
Here’s a look at some players from this year's Fall League who are faced with imminent 40-man roster decisions ahead of the protection deadline in November:
Jake Bennett, LHP, Nationals (Ranked No. 10)
Selected in the second round of the 2022 Draft from Oklahoma, Jake Bennett has had a challenging start to his career due to Tommy John surgery, which significantly limited him to just 138 1/3 innings of play. Though his 2023 season was cut short, he posted admirable numbers, registering a 2.27 ERA and striking out 64 batters across three levels, eventually reaching Double-A. The 6-foot-6 lefty has continued to impress, recently notching 17 strikeouts from 29 total swings in a game with Scottsdale, thanks to his effective 93-95 mph sinker and an equally deceptive 84-86 mph changeup. The Nationals would hate to lose a potential starting pitcher to the Rule 5 Draft, yet Bennett’s injury history and limited experience prompt significant questions regarding his need for 40-man roster protection.
Eiberson Castellano, RHP, Phillies (Ranked No. 24)
Could this be Eiberson Castellano’s moment? After being selected by the Twins in last year's Rule 5 Draft but subsequently returned in late March, he has a lot to prove. Unfortunately, shoulder issues restricted him to only 36 1/3 innings during the regular season, which hasn’t helped his bid for a spot on the Phillies' 40-man roster. However, his AFL beginnings were promising; he allowed only one run over three innings, striking out four in his initial start of the fall.
Welinton Herrera, LHP, Rockies (Ranked No. 19)
With a remarkable 2.64 ERA and a striking 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings alongside 17 saves, Welinton Herrera's performance in Double-A makes a strong case for roster inclusion. There's a chance the Rockies will add this 2025 Futures Game participant, as his fastball often reaches the upper 90s, complemented by an 86 mph slider that could prove effective in a relief capacity. Nevertheless, the recent organizational change in Colorado introduces uncertainty; every player might need to showcase their talents afresh to the new general manager.
Josh Kasevich, SS, Blue Jays (Ranked No. 12)
Heading into the season, Josh Kasevich appeared primed for his Major League debut after an impressive .325 batting average over 41 games with Triple-A Buffalo in '24. Unfortunately, a back injury sidelined him until mid-August, and upon his return, he struggled, hitting just .173/.272/.184 in 114 plate appearances. While Kasevich's plate discipline and in-zone contact remain exemplary, his lack of power raises questions. The Blue Jays must consider both his defensive capabilities at shortstop and his underwhelming slugging potential as they weigh his future.
Nick Morabito, OF, Mets (Ranked No. 16)
A 2022 high school draft pick from the Washington, D.C. region, Nick Morabito finds himself in a challenging spot regarding Rule 5 eligibility due to turning 19 soon after being selected. His standout traits include exceptional speed (108 stolen bases between 2024-2025) and solid center field defense. This season, he managed a .273 batting average, a .348 on-base percentage, and a 119 wRC+ over 118 games at Double-A Binghamton. However, his tendency to hit ground balls rather than fly balls could limit his power production unless he makes necessary adjustments during the Fall League.
Esmerlyn Valdez, OF/1B, Pirates (Ranked No. 15)
It would be surprising if Esmerlyn Valdez is not added to the Pirates' roster after an explosive regular season where he belted 26 homers and advanced to Double-A. He has certainly made his intentions clear in the AFL, smashing three home runs in his first four games, leaving no doubt about his capability to contribute significantly.
Unranked Players to Watch
Wuilfredo Antunez, OF, Guardians
Originally signed out of Venezuela for just $10,000 back in 2019, Wuilfredo Antunez has blossomed into one of Cleveland's top offensive talents. His season statistics tell a compelling story: 101 games played, a .275/.335/.521 slash line, 18 home runs, and 16 stolen bases, all while consistently making hard contact despite an aggressive hitting style.Johnathan Harmon, RHP, Reds
After undergoing Tommy John surgery in '24, Johnathan Harmon made a solid comeback this year, performing admirably in five starts with High-A Dayton. A 13th-round pick from 2022, Harmon might not be on the Reds' radar yet since he hasn’t pitched above A ball, but a standout performance in the Fall League could elevate his profile sufficiently to gain 40-man protection thanks to his diverse four-pitch repertoire.Hueston Morrill, RHP, Yankees
Hueston Morrill, who was signed as a non-drafted free agent from Oklahoma State in '22, presents a challenging case for the Yankees as they evaluate roster protection for a reliever. Notably, he ranked among the top four in ERA (0.76) and opponent batting average (.118) among full-season Minor Leaguers with at least 45 innings pitched this season. Transitioning from a middle infielder during college years, Morrill employs a low-90s sinker that generates weak ground balls, combined with an upper-80s cutter and mid-80s slider that keep hitters guessing.Jarold Rosado, RHP, White Sox
Jarold Rosado features an exciting three-pitch combination, highlighted by a fastball usually clocked between 93-95 mph, occasionally reaching as high as 97. Along with a low-80s slider and mid-80s changeup, Rosado is capable of generating swings and misses when effectively located. Having joined the White Sox through a July '24 trade with the Royals, his season included a 4.45 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings, although he also dealt with a six-week stint due to illness.
What do you think? Should your team be more aggressive in protecting players like these in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft? Which player do you believe has the most potential to shine if given a chance at the Major League level? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
